Why your CBAM bill isn't 2.5%
· 4 minutes
"In 2026 we only pay for 2.5% of our emissions." We hear it often, and it is the most expensive misunderstanding about CBAM. Here is where it comes from and what the numbers really are.
Where the 2.5% comes from
EU producers still receive part of their emission allowances for free. To treat imports the same way, CBAM deducts a free allocation from the emissions you pay for. In 2026 the CBAM factor is 97.5%: 97.5% of the free allocation still applies. So it sounds as if only 2.5% is left to pay.
What the 97.5% applies to
The 97.5% is a share of the EU benchmark for the good: the emissions per tonne of the most efficient EU producers. It is not a share of your emissions. The deduction per tonne is the benchmark × the CBAM factor, and you pay for everything above it.
Two things make the gap large:
- Default values, which you use without supplier data, are set well above typical EU production.
- Default values carry a mark-up: 10% in 2026, 20% in 2027 and 30% from 2028 (1% for fertilisers).
One tonne of steel screws from India
Steel screws (CN 7318 15 82) from India, on default values, in the first quarter of 2026:
The certificates have to cover the bottom bar, not the middle one. At the first-quarter price of €75.36 per certificate, that is €373.94 per tonne of screws.
And it rises every year
The CBAM factor falls each year until it reaches 0% in 2034, and the mark-up on default values rises to 30% in 2028. The same import costs more each year:
| Year | Per tonne | Total (10 t) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | €391.11 | €3,911 |
| 2027 | €458.37 | €4,584 |
| 2028 | €511.08 | €5,111 |
| 2029 | €525.11 | €5,251 |
| 2030 | €554.31 | €5,543 |
What you can do
The quickest way to lower the bill is verified data from your suppliers: actual emissions are usually below the default value, and they carry no mark-up. See what to ask your suppliers for.